Last week's indicator review found evidence of "broad and persistent market weakness". That weakness has shown up in continued weak technical strength across market sectors, and it is also manifested in sustained moderate oversold readings in the Cumulative Demand/Supply Index (top chart). New 20-day lows continue to swamp 20-day highs (middle chart) and we are hitting new lows in the Cumulative NYSE TICK (bottom chart).
A review of the advance-decline lines specific to NYSE common stocks and S&P 500 issues finds that they are also hitting bear market lows. Interestingly, as mentioned last week, the Cumulative Demand/Supply Index is not at levels that have marked recent intermediate-term market lows. Until we see evidence of a rising Cumulative TICK line and Demand exceeding Supply, it is premature to assume that oversold indicator readings will lead to a sustained market rally.
As always, I will be updating the indicators prior to the market open each day via Twitter (free subscription) and will use intraday Twitter posts to monitor market conditions. Below are the relative volume norms for the ES contract that help us determine institutional participation in that market. The first number is the median volume for that time period; the second is the standard deviation, going back to early January:
8:30 - 243,447 (59,218)
9:00 - 207,730 (50,526)
9:30 - 169,258 (50,306)
10:00 - 147,066 (63,977)
10:30 - 124,357 (54,924)
11:00 - 113,572 (38,366)
11:30 - 97,808 (32,624)
12 N - 120,261 (34,884)
12:30 - 123,119 (46,334)
1:00 - 143,712 (58,883)
1:30 - 140,481 (61,558)
2:00 - 190,454 (52,461)
2:30 - 260,692 (89,115)
3:00 (15 min period) - 106,827 (29,314)
.
9:00 - 207,730 (50,526)
9:30 - 169,258 (50,306)
10:00 - 147,066 (63,977)
10:30 - 124,357 (54,924)
11:00 - 113,572 (38,366)
11:30 - 97,808 (32,624)
12 N - 120,261 (34,884)
12:30 - 123,119 (46,334)
1:00 - 143,712 (58,883)
1:30 - 140,481 (61,558)
2:00 - 190,454 (52,461)
2:30 - 260,692 (89,115)
3:00 (15 min period) - 106,827 (29,314)
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