Sunday, June 30, 2019

Looking at the Market Through Different Lenses - 2: NYSE TICK

The first post in this series took a look at cumulative fresh monthly highs minus monthly lows among all listed stocks.  This is a nice way of capturing intermediate term strength and weakness among shares, as we should see more new highs than new lows during solid uptrends and vice versa.  As we saw in the post, the recent strength in the large cap stock indexes has not been confirmed by the cumulative new highs/lows, reflecting breadth weakness, particularly among midcap and small cap shares.

In this post, we examine breadth through a different lens.  Above we see SPY (blue line) plotted against a cumulative line constructed from the five-minute values of the NYSE TICK.  Recall that the TICK ($TICK on most platforms) is a real time measure of the number of NYSE shares trading on upticks minus those trading on downticks.  By adding the values to one another over time, as we do with advance-decline lines, we can gauge whether there is overall more buying or selling pressure in the market.

Note that the cumulative TICK has tended to top out ahead of the market, reflecting growing selling pressure even as SPX makes new highs.  This pattern is seen at present, as the Cumulative TICK is well short of its highs of earlier this year and early in 2018.  Again reflecting relative weakness among the smaller cap components of the NYSE Index, the Cumulative TICK has been particularly weak during this most recent rise in prices.

All of this gives me pause regarding the intermediate-term outlook for stocks.  Price has moved higher, but fewer stocks are participating in the strength.  This pattern has been playing out with a vengeance globally.  If we look at weekly charts of European equities (VGK); global stocks minus the U.S. (EFA); and especially emerging market shares (EEM), we can see significant relative weakness with respect to U.S. stocks.  Those same weekly charts reveal relative weakness across many sectors of the U.S. market, including XLE (energy); smaller cap shares (IWM); financial shares (XLF); homebuilders (XHB); and raw material stocks (XLB).

In the past, lengthy periods of breadth divergence have given way to meaningful bear markets, as many bulls are trapped in their positions and eventually have to protect their profits.  This occurred in 1999-2000 and again throughout 2007-early 2008.  The current divergence from early 2018 through the present is not encouraging in that regard.  I need to see a meaningful pickup in breadth to justify a medium-term exposure to stocks.

Further Reading: