Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Morning Briefing for February 3rd: Pulling Back

Note how ES futures have broken below the volume bulge area from overnight trade that extends from 1097 to 1099. A bounce following ADP jobs data has fizzled, and we're trading back around overnight lows as I write. The low 1100 area represents important resistance from last week; it also was important resistance in November and early December. I will be watching how we trade relative to that volume bulge and relative to VWAP to handicap the odds of being in a downtrend vs. a range consolidation following two days of strength. Note that a number of intermarket themes supporting the recent rise have also pulled back, with strength in USD and oil well off its overnight highs.