BRETT STEENBARGER'S TRADING PSYCHOLOGY RESOURCE CENTER

Below are resources to help traders become their own trading coaches, improve their trading processes, and develop a positive work-life balance.  All the TraderFeed posts also contain links to valuable resources and perspectives.  

RADICAL RENEWAL - Free blog book on trading, psychology, spirituality, and leading a fulfilling life

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The Three Minute Trading Coach Videos

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Forbes Articles:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettsteenbarger/
  

My coaching work applies evidence-based psychological techniques (see my background and my book on the topic) to the improvement of productivity, quality of life, teamwork, leadership, hiring best practices, and creativity/idea generation.  An important part of the "solution-focused" approach that I write about is that we can often best grow by focusing on what we do well and how we do it--and then doing more of what works for us.  The key is to know our cognitive, interpersonal, and personality strengths and leverage those in the pursuit of performance. 

FURTHER RESOURCES

*  A Creative Way to Use TraderFeed 

*  Brett Steenbarger Bio

*  Brett's Books on Trading Psychology

I wish you the best of luck in your development as a trader and in your personal evolution.  In the end, those are one and the same:  paths to becoming who we already are when we are at our best.

Brett
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Mentoring: The Key to Developing as a Trader

 

I'm in the process of finishing my next book, tentatively titled Positive Trading Psychology.  The last chapter has been the most fun to write, because I've learned the most in writing it.  Nine mentors who work at SMB Capital submitted their best mentoring practices to be included in the text.  Even though I've worked with all of these mentors/traders personally, I found their ideas to be eye-opening.  Here are a few important lessons for developing traders that will be covered in detail in the book:

1) Seek Training, Not Just Education - Education is necessary for professional development and elite performance, but it is not sufficient.  Medical students begin their studies in the classroom, learning anatomy, physiology, etc, but they learn the practice of medicine by observing and helping senior students, interns, residents, and attending physicians.  Coursework and webinars cannot substitute for real-time experience under the guidance of a mentor.  The mantra in medical education is "see one, do one, teach one".  We develop expertise by observing masters at work, by tackling performance under supervision and guidance, and finally by cementing our skills by teaching others.

2)  Learn From Multiple Mentors - We begin by copying a master; we develop our own styles by absorbing the skills of multiple masters.  Copying the master brings us to a level of competence.  Synthesizing the learning from multiple mentors develops our own styles and brings us to a level of mastery.  Teaching others cements our learning and transforms mastery into expertise.  Too often, traders seek answers in a single video, podcast, or course.  Expertise comes from finding and cementing our answers, not by mimicking others.  There are no short cuts in the development of elite performance.

3)  The Best Learning Instills Optimal Trading Psychology - A mentor is not just someone who teaches you where to buy and sell.  An effective mentor models how to think about and pursue opportunity: how to blend risk prudence and reward maximization.  In teaching trading process, mentors inevitably model trading mindset.  We most effectively learn trading psychology in our pursuit of sound trading.  Great mentoring builds a positive trading psychology, as it establishes a sense of understanding and mastery.  We internalize optimal trading psychology when we ground ourselves in optimal trading process.

Most of all, the SMB mentors have taught me that the best teachers are always learning from their students.  The effective mentor-student relationship creates teamwork.  Mentors learn from the research and practice of their students just as the students learn from the instruction and guidance of mentors.  Great mentoring forms great teamwork, making everyone better--

Further Reading:

Three Questions to Ask About Any Market

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Becoming Solution-Focused in Our Trading

 

Added Note:  11/18/24:  Quite a few of the senior traders/mentors at SMB Capital are contributing best practices to my upcoming book.  What has become clear is that they don't just teach setups and risk management; they actually do those things with the developing traders on the trading floor.  One mentor described forming joint accounts with the developing traders, so that learning occurs in real time, with real money on the line for both teacher and student.  Notice how this is powerfully different from simply teaching trading techniques in live or online classes.  We learn trading solutions by seeing them applied--again and again--in real time with immediate feedback.  How we learn trading shapes our trading psychology.  

Additional Note:  11/13/24:  We can't be solution-focused in our trading if we're living our lives in problem-focused mode.  A solution-focused life means that we identify--every single day--what specific things we're doing to bring us energy, fulfillment, and success.  Working on our trading is fruitless if we're not working on ourselves.  Here's an article with links to assess our overall well-being and improve our positive psychology.  The goal is to maximize our happiness, life satisfaction, energy, and relationships.  If we are living full and fulfilling lives, we can readily handle the ups and downs of markets and trading performance.

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We give energy to what we focus on.

If we focus on negative outcomes, we energize our worries and fears.

If we focus on problems, we fuel our sense of being broken.

What is in your trading journal?  What is in your thoughts after a losing trade?

That is what you are energizing.

This is why it is so very important to focus on your best trading and learn from your successes.

When your trading problems are *not* occurring, that is often when you are doing something right.

Once you focus on what you're doing right, you become solution-focused.

Success follows when we identify our solutions and turn them into habits.

Suppose you identified one thing each day that you did well in your trading and made it a goal to repeat and extend the next day?

What we focus on each day compounds and becomes our reality.

No solution-focused trader has ever gone on tilt.

When we are solution-focused, we grow the best within us.

Further Reading:

Solution-Focused Trading

Keys to Solution-Focused Trading

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Trading Without Drama

 

Added comment (11/7/24):  In a video just posted, Jeff Holden and I teach a class for the SMB Training Program and address how to avoid trading on tilt.  Tilt always has a trigger.  If we rehearse trigger situations while placing ourselves in states of optimal focus, we defuse our negative triggers.  If we rehearse our A+ setups while placing ourselves in states of optimal focus, we create positive triggers.    

Additional note below:

What if we're looking for the wrong thing in our trading?

What if we're looking for "catalysts" and "breakouts" and bursts of volume and volatility, because that's where the action can be found?

What if, instead, we filtered our search for instruments that were trading in the most stable manner, following relatively unchanging trends and cycles?  

In that case, we would trade, not what moves the most, but what moves the most coherently and consistently.  We wouldn't be predicting in the face of uncertainty; we would be identifying in the face of stability.

If we trade the opportunities that are most predictable with the least drama, how might that impact our trading psychology?

Might our trade selection shape our trading psychology?

Perhaps logic starts where drama ends--

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Additional note - 11/5/24:  Notice something subtle.  Many traders attempt to use technical analysis tool for predictive purposes.  If we're trying to identify markets that are trading in regular, stable patterns, then the tools of technical analysis can be used to describe those patterns and help us align with those.  To the degree that the patterns indeed remain stable, that would bring some predictive benefit.  The main purpose of the technical tools, however, would be for trade idea generation, capturing the degree to which recent price action has followed stable cycles and trends (and, of course, cycles within trends).  

When I create charts where the bars are defined by volume traded, not time, this helps normalize the market's time series and makes it easier to use technical tools to identify stable patterns.  (Here's an interesting example from a few years ago; here's a relevant earlier post).  It's particularly enlightening when we can identify stable patterns over multiple time frames, aligning our ideas, an idea that Brian Shannon has emphasized in his work.

Further Reading:

A Framework for Trading and Trading Psychology

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Overcoming Emotional Trading in Real Time

 

Update:  My medical school colleagues and I wrote a chapter for a standard reference text in psychiatry that just came out.  It covers recent research and practice in short-term approaches to changing our thinking, feeling, and acting.  An important finding is that it takes emotion to change emotion.  We are most likely to internalize changes we make if we truly feel those changes.  One key implication for the topic below:  We can most efficiently and effectively change emotion in real time by evoking the *opposite* emotion, not by trying to make ourselves emotionless.  If we're frustrated and self-critical, instead of trying to empty our minds and meditate, we can evoke memories of trading experiences that left us feeling fulfilled and grateful.  More to come! - Brett  

We read a lot about trading psychology and the need to maintain perspective, trade our plans, control our emotions, accept losses and uncertainty, and manage our risk.  This education is helpful, but it is not training.  Actual training in trading psychology would have to occur in real time, because trading challenges crop up only when we are in certain states of mind and body.  This is why Jeff Holden and I have teamed up for SMB Capital's training program to help traders coach themselves in the heat of battle.  This is going to be a multi-week collaboration, in which we integrate the discussion of markets and trades with hands-on work on our mindsets.

Here is the video from our first class.  

A major idea from the session is that, before we can change our emotional state, we need to be aware of our state.  Jeff presented a "mood meter" that enables us to place labels on what we're experiencing.  As I point out in the video, the very act of identifying what we're feeling enables us to be an observer of our experience--not one who is wrapped up in their experience.  This coming Thursday midday, we'll discuss--in the context of the market trade that morning--what to do once we observe our emotions, so that we can stay constructively engaged in our trading.  I look forward to getting a video for that session as well.

Now here's an important point that we rarely encounter.  It comes from the book I'm currently writing, which integrates positive psychology and trading psychology:

Awareness of our positive emotional states is every bit as important to our trading as awareness of our frustration and negativity.

If we are aware of the emotional signs that accompany our best trades--our feelings of understanding and confidence--that awareness helps us take larger risk when the expected value of our trades is best.  We have positive triggers for our best trading just as we have triggers that set off our worst trading.  Recognizing our positive triggers in real time enables us to make the most of the opportunities that present themselves.  This is why it's important that our "mood meters" capture the best as well as the worst of our trading experience.  

More to come!

Brett  

How To Coach Yourself To Trading Success

 

Update:  During Thursday's session, Jeff reviewed with the group the chart of emotions that described four quadrants at the intersection of two axes:  positive and negative; high and low energy.  We also discussed the very center of the chart as our state of focus.  The idea is that, when we're super focused on markets, we're not immersed in either positive or negative feelings.  At that point, it's not about us.  So the question becomes:  how do we reach and sustain that center point?  The first step is self-awareness:  simply to know what we're experiencing in the present and to be an observer of our emotional state, not immersed in what we're feeling.  An initial exercise in this direction is to write down what we're feeling when we're feeling it.  By observing ourselves, we are exercising (self) focus.  Next week we will build on this-- 

This Thursday, I will join the head of recruiting for SMB Capital, Jeff Holden, for a combined mentoring/coaching class with developing traders.  What will be unique to the session is that I will be presenting and teaching coaching skills to the traders at the same time that Jeff presents and teaches best trading practices for that day's trade.  To the best of my knowledge, this will be the first time that the skills of trading psychology are taught alongside the skills of consistently profitable trading in the context of a live market session.  Once we've held the session for SMB students, I will share the specific methods we talked about in an update to this blog post.  The goal is to go beyond coaching advice and provide specific tools for TraderFeed readers to coach themselves to trading success.  

As Coach K indicates above, the key to elite performance is hungering for excellence, not success.  We can't always win, but we can always learn and learn and practice and practice excellent ways to play the game.  Back in the mid-1970s, I had the honor of being part of the freshman basketball team at Duke.  The coach ended quite a few of the evening practice sessions with an exercise where each player had to hit 10 consecutive free throws before they could go home.  You can imagine, tired and sweaty and needing to get homework done, how the players desperately wanted to get home.  That put real pressure on their free throws.  Over the course of the season, they had practiced doing the right things at the charity stripe so often under duress that they didn't wilt when it came to clutch situations at game time.  They achieved excellence by practicing under the emotional conditions of actual performance.

Now imagine that you couldn't leave your trade station after the market close until you had traded that day's market successfully in replay mode.  Again and again, you'd replay the market and push yourself to stay in the right mindset and take the right actions.  Day after day, those reps would eventually become part of you and you'd internalize sound trading psychology at the same time that you internalized sound trading.  

Stay tuned to this blog post after Thursday morning's session with Jeff.  I'll share the methods I discussed with the developing traders and I'll highlight how you can best rehearse these methods to coach yourself effectively.  This should be fun--

Brett    

Why Can't I Improve My Trading?

 

Think of how many trading courses are out there.  Consider how many trading and trading psychology books have been written.  Trading videos, tweets, interviews, podcasts:  the amount of content related to trading success is phenomenal.  And every week we get more and more and more.  Traders I hear from read books, watch videos, take courses--and they wonder, "Why can't I improve my trading?"

To address this question, I'll offer an analogy:

I could write chapters on how to pack, wear, and deploy a parachute.  I could produce videos on proper parachute maintenance and use.  I could teach a parachute course.  Now suppose you consumed all of the content I created on how to master the parachute and then you jumped out of a helicopter with your parachute.

How would you fare?

Of course, in the military, you learn to properly pack a parachute by packing parachutes and getting first hand instruction and inspection.  You learn to deploy a parachute by being tied to a line from a height and then dropping:  first at relatively low heights, then at higher heights.  You deploy the parachute again and again during real drops that are completely safe before you tackle riskier jumps.

The reason for this is that learning is state-dependent.  We are most likely to recall information and enact skills when we are in the state that we were in during our learning.  If we learn parachuting skills when we are calm and collected in a classroom, we're unlikely to recruit those skills when we're making a leap and the adrenaline is flowing.

Traders typically learn trading techniques and get psychological coaching when they are very far from the heat of battle.  Everything they learn flies out the window when markets are moving and there's real risk and reward every moment.  

We can't learn to drive racecars by watching videos, reading books, or absorbing tweets.

We can't learn combat skills in wartime by staying safe and peaceful in a classroom.  We can't master our upheavals of trading psychology when we're quiet and comfortable outside of market hours.

The best trading education and trading psychology is processed in real-time, in the act of trading.  We learn best by acquiring and practicing skills when we're in the mental, emotional, and physical states of real performance.  Our best teacher is realistic, progressive simulation.

For trading psychology, this is a game-changing insight.  More to come--

Further Reading:

Using Your Body to Program Your Mind

Overcoming the Triggers to Poor Trading

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Should I Join a Prop Trading Firm or Trading Community?

 

In recent weeks, I've had a number of traders reach out to me, asking about joining proprietary (prop) trading firms or joining trading communities.  Here is the essence of my response:

*  There is value in learning trading and developing trading skills and experience when you can learn from the experiences of others.  The best trading firms that I work with operate with team structures where there is a commitment to help each other and learn from each other.  Having trading partners can increase our accountability, and it can provide us with multiple role models.  Simply being online with other traders is not team trading.  Go where traders are committed to one another.

*  The best trading organizations only succeed and make money if their traders succeed and make money.  When I began my work in Chicago, the best prop firms covered basic overhead with desk fees and passed along member firm commission rates to traders.  Those firms shared profits with successful traders.  They did not succeed if traders were not profitable.  They invested in the best trading technology, because that would make the traders--and the firm--successful.     

*  You should be encouraged to make money, not simply to trade.  Other prop firms in Chicago operated as arcades, where traders traded their own capital, kept most of their profits, and paid fees for access to equipment and technology.  Some charged high commissions and made the bulk of their money by getting traders to place lots of trades.  When traders pulled back their risk taking due to uncertainty, this became a problem for management.  The interests of the firm and the traders did not always align.

*  Beware firms selling hope as their main product.  Some prop firms are not really prop firms at all, as they promise access to capital based upon tryouts that traders pay for.  The conditions of the tryouts are quite challenging, and it's not unusual for aspiring traders to engage in multiple tryouts.  Often, the interests of some of these firms are in selling tryouts, not in funding and growing successful traders.  Is there real training, real performance feedback, and real teamwork among participants?  Does the firm's growth depend upon the success of those who pass the tryouts?

*  Seek interactivity.  Online trading communities often offer education and coaching as well as sharing among community members.  This can greatly broaden the learning of developing traders.  The key question in evaluating online trading communities is the degree to which members actually form virtual teams and make teamwork a daily part of their trading processes.  If the communities succeed mostly by selling memberships and services, they cannot foster the mutual learning and development essential to our learning curves.

A quick anecdote:  Tomorrow, I'll be joining Jeff Holden from SMB Capital to help traders make use of a new technology that tracks the expected value of trades in real time.  This can be of tremendous value in sizing positions appropriately and in helping traders grow their risk-taking in responsible ways.  SMB is training the traders to take better risk/reward trades and they are investing in the technology so that the firm will succeed as the traders become more successful. 

Be selective:  The right firms and communities treat you as an investment, not as a trade--

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Two Paths to Trading Success

 

There are two very distinctive paths to trading success:

The first path is to study market action in great detail and identify patterns associated with large market moves.  When those set up, the successful trader has seen and charted so many of those examples that they can pounce on the opportunity with large size.  Also because the successful trader has observed so many explosive moves, they are sensitive to when the explosion is *not* occurring and can exit with controlled risk.  For this kind of trader, a key psychological strength is patience.  Much of success lies in not trading until the outstanding opportunity comes along.  Another important psychological strength is aggression.  The very successful trader is not just right, but recognizes when they are right and is able to go for it in size.

The second path to great market success is to trade broad rather than big.  This is the path of many successful hedge fund managers.  They search and search and research and research and look for opportunities in different markets, in different parts of the world, and in different time frames.  None of the positions are necessarily very large, but the combination of the positions makes for a sizable portfolio.  Because the opportunities are relatively uncorrelated, the trader can make large amounts of money even when some views don't play out.  The broad trader is placing so many bets with edge that consistent returns follow.

Team structures help the first path to success, as a recent video from SMB Capital indicates.  Having multiple eyes on the short-term price action of many stocks and markets increases the odds of finding the truly special opportunities.

Team structures are essential to the second path to success, because team members with different areas of expertise and experience contribute unique ideas to a broad portfolio.

You can win by trading big.  You can win by trading broad.  It's tough to win trading in isolation.

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How Gratitude Transforms Trading

 

A wealth of research finds that experiences of gratitude--feeling appreciative of what we have--are important to overall emotional and physical well-being.  Of special significance is research that gratitude impacts our brain activity over long time periods, activating the areas responsible for reasoning and problem-solving.  This fits well with research that shows how positive emotional experience helps us see the world more broadly and deeply.  

When we can turn trading mistakes and setbacks into valuable lessons for learning and growth, we can actually feel gratitude toward our challenges.  Once we're focused on our development, everything--our best trading and our worst--becomes fuel for getting better and better.  Amazingly, when we sustain that positive mind frame, we actually see more in markets.  

Negativity blinds us to trading opportunity.

Including gratitude in our daily review process by focusing on experiences that make us better is a great way of sustaining our positive trading psychology.  At moments when I feel frustrated, I look over to our bonded rescue cats, Molly and Ares, see how they have found happiness, and feel grateful for the opportunity to have given them a good life.  Frustrations melt away when we appreciate what we have.  

An optimal trading psychology is one of focus and one of positivity.  Amazingly, when we are highly focused and in a state of emotional and physical well-being, we see markets better and make more clear-headed decisions.  If trading brings us gratitude--even in challenging times--we'll be best prepared to find and exploit opportunity.

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Three Questions to Ask About Your Positive Trading Psychology

 

The book that I'm currently writing, covering the positive psychology of trading, emphasizes that how we approach trading determines how positive our trading experiences become--and that helps determine our trading success.  Too often, people pursue happiness and fulfillment by seeking trading success.  The field of positive psychology suggests the reverse:  if our trading practices and processes draw upon our strengths and what is meaningful to us, we will trade with greater focus and energy, see more in markets, and interact more effectively with peer traders.  

So much of traditional trading psychology is problem-focused, emphasizing what we need to do to avoid reactive, emotional trading; what we need to do to accept risk and handle drawdowns, etc.  The reality is that we will never achieve a peak performance state simply by shoring up weaknesses.  Three questions to ask with respect to our achievement of a positive trading psychology are:

1)  Are my trading processes well-defined, and do they consistently draw upon my personality, social, and information processing strengths?  (Do I truly understand what my strengths are and how my trading methods draw upon those?)

2)  Do I find energy and fulfillment in the processes of trading regardless of near-term P/L?

3)  Do I draw upon the strengths of others and contribute to their strengths so that I am continually learning and improving?

We achieve a peak trading psychology by making our trading an expression of our greatest talents, skills, and ideals. 

Somewhere, hidden in your best trading, is the trader you're meant to be.  

The challenge is to develop a close relationship with your best self.

Further Reading:

Mastering the Positive Psychology of Trading

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Knowing What The F** Is Going On In Markets

 

It's amazing how our trading psychology improves when we take the time to step back, review macro markets, and understand what is going on in the heads of large money managers.

Consider the recent stock market:

*  Growth-related sectors have been particularly weak.  Check out the XLK (technology) and XLY (consumer discretionary) ETFs.

*  Value-related sectors have been relatively strong, especially the ones that benefit from lower interest rates.  Check out the XLRE (real estate); XLU (utilities); and XLP (consumer staples) ETFs.

*  The bond market has been strong, which means interest rates are falling.  Check out the BND (bond) ETF.

*  The US dollar has been weak.  Check out the DXY (dollar index).

*  Commodities have been falling.  Check out the DBC (commodities) ETF and oil prices.

Macro markets do not always trade thematically.  When they do, smart traders pay attention.  You can work on your psychology 24 hours and, if you don't understand market themes, you'll eventually get run over and lose money.

Going forward, a key question to ask is whether the theme of growth slowdown and potential recession is expanding or whether there are signs that the market's "theme-ness" is reversing.  Aligning shorter-term trading with the market's bigger picture helps ensure that you're swimming with the tide, not against it.

Further Reading:

The Importance of Understanding Global Macro Themes

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Exercising Our Character, Improving Ourselves

 

It's been great spending my 70th birthday with wife Margie and daughter Devon, traveling around Colorado.  There's something about natural beauty that inspires mood and mind, turning vacation time into a time of rejuvenation.  With that new energy, I find myself tackling fresh goals and challenges.  One of the most popular TraderFeed blog posts explained the process of FIGS:  Focused, Intensive Goal Setting.  The idea is that we achieve the greatest growth by establishing a limited number of goals and then focusing on working on those on a daily basis, turning them into internalized parts of ourselves.  I've long held that the age at which we become old is the age at which we determine that our best years are behind us.  The key to staying young psychologically is always having a guiding vision that we pursue intensively, challenging and inspiring us.

A particularly powerful vision comes from visualizing the kind of person we would ideally like to be.  What personality strengths would we most like to develop?  We can view our character development much as we view our physical development:  use it or lose it.  We can also set up routines to exercise our character the way we exercise our bodies.  What one personal improvement can you make that will make you a better friend and partner, a better trader, a better human being?  How can you use each day to make that improvement?

The keyword for my character improvement goal is forbearance.  That term can mean a decision to not enforce an obligation, such as the payment of a loan.  It also means patience and an acceptance of the limitations of others.  When we become impatient with others and expect them to meet our needs, we naturally put ourselves first and can create toxic interactions.  The idea of servant leadership is that we best lead by taking care of others, accepting and addressing their needs.  One of the reasons I've enjoyed our adoption of rescue cats is that it pushes us to get outside ourselves and prioritize their development.  In doing so, we create meaningful experiences and interactions.  In building my forbearance, I'm--in a sense--adopting everyone I deal with, committing myself to furthering their lives.

There is wealth in trading, and there is wealth in our personal development.  Indeed, it's not unusual to find that pursuing personal development furthers our trading success.

What are you working on today that will make you a better version of who you already are?  

How will today provide a great exercise routine for the qualities you want to cultivate?

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The Most Important Skill in Trading Psychology

 

Coaching ourselves to trading success requires that we know our strengths and our vulnerabilities.  All of us have our triggers that are associated with the unresolved conflicts and unmet needs that we bring to trading--and to other areas of life.  Not as well recognized is that we also have positive triggers that cue us to activate our strengths.  If we don't know our positive triggers, we can't establish processes that cue our success and benefit from them.  If we can't anticipate our negative triggers, we can't intercept them before they do harm to our trading accounts.

The most important skill in trading psychology is self awareness.  If we are not mindfully self-aware, we operate on autopilot, miss opportunities to put our strengths to work, and expose ourselves to emotional triggers that can hurt us.  If we know our triggers and can actually anticipate them, we gain significant control over our trading.  

A common positive trigger is feeling in the flow of our trading, absorbed and operating in the zone.  That state of heightened focus is one that sets off our intuitive pattern recognition, allowing us to see opportunities unfolding in real time.

A common negative trigger is frustration.  When we undergo a loss and become angry and frustrated, the resulting fight/flight response leads us to trade reactively.  In that state, we cannot possibly see actual opportunity unfolding.

Taking periodic breaks during the trading day and assessing our degree of focus and frustration builds our skills at self awareness.  When we become increasingly able to identify our states in real time, we gain the option of guiding our trading actions accordingly.  If you know you're seeing the ball well, you can take a meaningful swing.  If you know you're agitated and not seeing the ball, you can step back, work on your focus, and preserve your capital.  That is huge.

At SMB Capital, a mantra is "One Good Trade".  Taken after Mike Bellafiore's book of that title, the mantra tells us to just focus on the next trade and what will make it a good one.  Notice how this is actually an exercise in self-awareness.  If we don't know what goes into a good trade--and what we need to avoid to prevent a trade from going bad--we can't recover from a loss (or build upon a gain) by making "one good trade".

Good traders know the market.  Great traders also know themselves.  

Market awareness + self awareness = consistent profitability.

Further Reading:

Strategies for Building Self Awareness

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How to Coach Yourself to Trading Success

 

Suppose we are all like Clark Kent:  an ordinary person on the outside with hidden superpowers and also a vulnerability to Kryptonite.  

Suppose you begin coaching yourself by looking, looking, looking through all your trades and all your life's successes to find your one superpower.

Suppose, in that search, you examine all your trades and all your losses to find your Kryptonite.

What if your path as a trader is to find your personal superpower and figure how it comes out in your trading?

What if your path as a trader is to find the Kryptonite that has created your life's greatest failures and figure out how that shows up in your trading?

The real enemy is viewing ourselves as average.  We are superheroes with super vulnerabilities.  Our path to success requires that we embrace both realities.  Then we can truly act as our own trading coaches.

Further Reading:

The Heroic Dimensions of Trading

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Overcoming Emotional Trading - Part Three: Eliminating Tilt Trading

 

In Part Two of this series, we took a look at the importance of focus and concentration in successful trading.  Indeed, if we are focused and "in the zone", there is no way that emotionality can disrupt our trading.  On the other hand, if we are caught up in P/L and the need to make money, every price movement will have the potential to be disruptive.  Going on tilt means that we become totally reactive in our trading rather than planned and proactive.  We act on fear, greed, and impulse and make decisions that we would never make if we were in our usual calm and focused state.  Tilt occurs when the needs we bring to trading dominate our need to understand and follow markets.  

Please review this post on a powerful technique for overcoming tilt trading.  The key to the success of this method is to train yourself to enter a state of mind and body that is incompatible with tilt.  This can be accomplished with breathing exercises, meditation, and biofeedback work.  It takes practice, but quickly pays off:  Once we can enter a calm, relaxed, focused state at will, then we can recognize in real time when we're starting to become emotional and quickly place ourselves in our focused zone.  The goal is not to eliminate emotion from trading, but to recognize it in real time and become able to shift gears when we need to.

As I noted in my talk with traders at SMB, it is the awareness of danger--the view that tilt is the enemy, not losing money on a particular trade--that allows surgeons and elite military troops to tackle dangerous missions and remove emotion from their work.  The key to eliminating tilt from our trading is to mentally rehearse situations of loss and frustration while we engage in exercises that keep us focused and slowed down.  As long as we're slowed down physically, we can't be worked up emotionally.  These exercises can be part of our daily preparation, where we reinforce the idea that losses in trading are normal and are not threats.  The real enemy is tilt and the loss of emotional control.  When we enter trading totally aware of the dangers of tilt with techniques that help us stay calm and focused, we're like the surgeon or soldier operating in a risky environment.  

A prepared mind never enters tilt.

Further Reading:

Training Your Focus

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Overcoming Emotional Trading - Part Two: Training Your Focus

 

So often, the problem with discipline in our trading is not an excess of emotion, but the relative absence of focus.  If we grow our capacity for focus, we activate the parts of our brains that are responsible for planning and problem solving--not the parts that respond to threat with flight or fight.  

In the first post in this series, we saw that utilizing mental rehearsal with respect to position management--our stops and even our take-profit levels--helps us take the emotion out of decision making.  One of the reasons for this is that frequent and prolonged mental rehearsal actually serves as training for focus and concentration.  When we review performance and rehearse our trading plans, we are creating an associative link between our state of focus and the execution of our processes.  Doing this again and again strengthens this link, so that when we face decisions in real time, we can activate our intensified concentration and bring to mind all the things we've been rehearsing in that focused state.

Training our focus helps us make decisions in the heat of battle.  Rehearsing our plans in the state of intensified focus cements them, so that they become automatic and not laden with emotion.

As I recently shared, brain wave biofeedback (neurofeedback) is an effective tool for training our focus.  When we get real time feedback about our state of concentration, we can figure out how to enter and stay "in the zone".  The biofeedback platform I use, Muse, allows users to engage in video games that give them better scores when they stay more focused.  Playing the games repeatedly and moving up to more and more challenging levels turns the biofeedback sessions into a kind of mind gym, where we strengthen our concentration and extend it for longer and longer times.  Working with a teacher to learn yoga or meditation can serve a very similar purpose.

What I find particularly helpful is mentally rehearsing stressful situations in trading *while* tracking my focus in the biofeedback.  Going through scenarios again and again and training ourselves to stay focused literally trains mind and body to take emotion out of decision making.  We are not only exercising our capacity for concentration, but our specific ability to stay focused in stressful circumstances.

We can grow our heads.  When we stay switched on, it's amazing how emotions switch off.

Further Reading:

Three Dimensions of Trading Focus

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Overcoming Emotional Trading - Part One: Mental Rehearsal and Stops

 

Unless they are trading very specialized strategies, most traders do not win on significantly more than half of their trades.  What makes them profitable is that the average size of their winning trades nicely exceeds the average size of their losers.  Indeed, it's not uncommon to see traders make a little or lose a little on most of their trades.  Their profitability comes from a few sizable winners and from the absence of sizable losers.  Risk management is absolutely key to consistent profitability.

This is why setting stop losses is vital to successful trading.  We need to clearly identify what would tell us our trade is wrong and commit to exiting immediately.  For example, I may see selling pressure in the stock market, with several minutes of negative NYSE TICK readings.  I notice that the market cannot move below the previous level at which we had similar selling.  On the first sign of buying pressure, I go long and my stop is at the most recent lows.  Right away, this provides a favorable risk/reward.  It also makes good sense to me because a violation of the recent lows tells me that buyers have not taken control.

Such setting of stops is as much a psychological exercise as a risk management one.  It is not enough simply to identify a price level for exit.  This must be an emotional commitment.  By mentally rehearsing scenarios in which we're stopped out--visualizing the market action that would take us out of a trade and how we want to respond--the setting of the stop becomes an emotional preparation to handle the loss.  If we are mentally rehearsing a negative scenario and making that scenario familiar--and if we know in advance how much we can lose on the trade and can accept that--then losing no longer becomes a shock or a threat.  Repetition takes the emotion out of negative scenarios.

We always want to create psychological safety in our trading.  Our sizing and our stop losses should be such that we can lose and always come back.  As I've mentioned in the past, we should never lose so much in one trade that we cannot be profitable by the end of the day.  We should never lose so much in one day that we cannot be profitable at week's end.  And we should never lose so much in a week that we can't have a winning month.  If we achieve that kind of consistency of process, we will be consistently profitable and cultivate a consistent trading psychology.

Further Reading:

Using Emotion to Change Emotion

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Finding Our Greatness

Update:  Here's a valuable reading passed along by an experienced, successful trader.  It explains how we can make very large gains in any area of life by making small improvements every single day.  Note how this builds consistency of mindset, as our daily focus becomes forward-looking and constructive.

In an impactful video, Mike Bellafiore at SMB Capital explains how our development as traders embraces the far larger development of our greatness.   

The reason for this is that, for us to be successful, our development has to be based upon our strengths:  our talents and our passionate interests.  Very often, we find our passion when we pursue our talent:  the exercise of our distinctive talents is intrinsically rewarding and motivating.

That is why our development as traders should always begin broadly and only later proceed deeply.  We need to try different styles of trading, work with different mentors, and trade different markets before we discover what truly speaks to us.  This is why medical students participate in rotations in different medical specialties before they focus their training on the field that matches their talents, skills, and interests.  Play many sports and then focus on one.  Play many positions on the field and then pursue one.  

Many, many times we fail to achieve our potential--and we cannot find our passion or greatness--because we have short-circuited the developmental process.  We try to go deep before we explore broadly.  We are typically meant to date many people before we find our lifetime partner.  If we jump into partnership without the exploration of dating, we are far more likely to make a poor decision.  Some traders so need to make money that they jump into a style of trading before exploring a variety of styles and markets.  Greatness cannot be grounded in desperate need.  It must stem from what speaks to us uniquely.  

Your greatness as a trader will be related to something you already do greatly in life.

Your past successes and passionate interests hold clues to your trading success.  Try many roles and ways of engaging markets.  After you date lots of trading roles, you just may find your mate.

Further Reading:

What Is Your Path To Greatness?

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Two Important Lessons From Professional Traders

 

Here are two key takeaways from successful portfolio managers and traders I've been privileged to work with.  

1)  Create Multiple Ways to Win - A trader who only knows to go long or short a particular instrument is like a baseball pitcher that only knows how to throw one kind of pitch.  There are many ways to win in markets:  by using options to trade patterns of volatility; by trading the relative relationships between two or more assets; and by expressing market views across a variety of instruments and markets.  Note that the stock market pullback today would have hurt a trader who was long, but would have made money for a trader who had recognized the shift in relative strength between small cap stocks and large cap ones.  What is the best way to express a given market idea?  Trade structuring is every bit as important to returns as trade ideas themselves.

2)  Create a Lifestyle That Builds Your Strengths - If we internalize what we consistently do, then consistently exercising our strengths will make us stronger people and more successful traders.  What we do outside markets ultimately finds its expression in our trading.  Profitable trading requires intensity of focus and flexibility of focus, as we shift from generating ideas to executing and managing trades.  If we live a distracted life, we unwittingly undermine the cognitive strengths needed for market success.  The degree to which we actively structure our calendars is the degree to which we can live each day intentionally and use each day to build our capacity for focus and purpose.  There can be no trading discipline if life itself is lived without discipline.

Trading is a performance activity that builds upon our talents and skills.  Whatever you do that is successful in markets will be an expression of what you've already done successfully in life.  We find our passion in expressing our talents:  that is what drives us to build skills, and it is what ultimately builds our trading psychology.  A masterpiece painting is crafted one brushstroke at a time.  A masterpiece life is created one purposeful, meaningful day at a time.

Further Reading:

What Predicts Success Among Developing Traders?

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Sound Trading Is Training In Trading Psychology

 

A sound trading process is a kind of gym where we exercise the functions that contribute to a successful trading psychology.

As the recent post illustrated, what we call a "trading process" is actually a number of interwoven processes that push us to exercise our abilities.  Idea generation alone may have us analyzing historical information; synthesizing information across markets; consulting market research and valued market participants; and making sense of shorter and longer-term patterns of price, volume, volatility, and more.  

Once we've generated the idea, there is the work of defining and structuring the trade to achieve best risk/reward; establishing position sizing to best meet risk management goal; assessing moment-to-moment action to identify sound entry and exit points, as well as points for adding to positions or taking pieces of our trades off.  Notice that all of these processes require:

*  Sustained focus/concentration;

*  Deep, broad, creative thinking to assemble information into ideas;

*  Fast, flexible thinking to execute sound trades;

*  Personality strengths of conscientiousness and emotional balance.

When we treat our trading process as a gym with many workout stations, we build a sense of inner strength, growth, mastery, and confidence.

A poorly defined, simplistic trading process reinforces laziness and fails to build us cognitively or emotionally.  We internalize what we do.  What we do day after day in our trading preparation exercises the strengths that contribute to a strong trading psychology.  When our processes are grounded in our strengths, the efforts of workouts are fulfilling, not taxing.  There is no challenge as important to developing traders as that of defining processes grounded in our particular competencies and strengths.    

Further Reading:

How Developing Traders Are Most Likely To Succeed

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Two Important Takeaways From The Recent Stock Market Action

 

Update:  7/14/24 - We continued to see breadth strength on Friday and finished the session with 1901 stocks across the NYSE making fresh monthly highs and only 109 registering new monthly lows.  This is considerable breadth strength, bolstered by buying of small- and midcap shares.  Interestingly, going back to 2010 (over 3400 trading sessions), we've only seen 45 trading sessions in which we had over 1500 new monthly highs and less than 150 fresh monthly lows.  Three days later, the SPX averaged a loss of -.41% (17 up, 28 down), quite a difference from the average three day gain of +.35% for the remainder of the sample.  Once we look 20+ days out, there was no downside bias.  I will be watching for near term weakness following the recent strength, mindful of the bigger picture bullish implications of the breadth thrust (see below).  I'll especially focus on which sectors are relatively strong and weak during any market pullback; that information could help set up a good trade.  

On Thursday, the stock market was quite the magician.  Good magicians will get you to look at what they're doing with their right hands but meanwhile the actual "magic" is happening outside our awareness, in the left hand.  The market's right hand gave us a solid decline in the SPX and especially in the growth areas that have been unusually strong.  The left hand, however, pulled off the real magic.  Market breadth increased significantly, creating what we call a breadth thrust.

The purpose of most of my quantitative analyses is to investigate market history and see if a given move is likely to lead to retracement (mean reversion) or momentum (trend).  If I can get a clear signal from market history, I then look at high frequency data to identify solid risk/reward points for entry in the direction of the analysis.  From this perspective, the "setup" is not the trade idea; edge occurs when the market sets up in the direction of solid research.

The market magic yesterday is that we saw very strong smaller cap stocks at the same time that SPX and tech sold off.  Up to now, small and midcap stocks have largely underperformed the large cap and especially the tech market.  Not yesterday.  According to the excellent Barchart resource, that created a situation in which 1518 stocks across the NYSE made fresh monthly highs and 187 registered new monthly lows.  Moreover, if we take a look at the number of stocks giving buy vs. sell signals on technical indicators on the very helpful Stock Charts site, we find that yesterday registered over 600 stocks giving buy signals on their Bollinger Bands and only 13 gave sell signals.  That is unusual breadth strength.

I've tracked these readings since 2019 and can tell you that, in over 1200 trading sessions, we've only seen that kind of breadth strength six times.  Moreover, when we've seen 400+ stocks close above their upper Bollinger Bands on the same day (N = 25), the SPX has been up 21 times, down 4 over the next ten trading sessions.  Interestingly, there has been no distinct upside edge up to 5 days out.  Where that leaves me is looking for short term pullbacks in the broad market that cannot make new lows in order to participate in anticipated continued strength.  It also has me looking with fresh eyes at the specific sectors likely to show this momentum.

So what's the second takeaway from yesterday's market action?  It's that the entire move was triggered by a drop in interest rates in the U.S.  Moderation of inflation numbers led to a rally across the curve.  Not so long ago, I was getting close to 5% on my two-year T-notes.  Now we're closer to 4.5%.  The markets are suggesting that economic strength will broaden out if we indeed see a sustained move toward lower rates from the Fed.  That is important information for traders and investors alike.  What were the best trades in a higher rate regime may not be the best trades if rates sustain a fall.

There are many implications for trading psychology in all this...I'll outline those in the next post.  

Further Reading:

Using Breadth, Strength, and Momentum to Track Market Cycles

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How Developing Traders Are Most Likely To Succeed

 

I'd like to call attention to a very important dynamic in recent markets.  Many experienced traders focused on traditional asset classes, such as rates and currency markets, are struggling with their performance.  The ones I meet with who are making money in those spaces are focused on regions of the world that are less crowded than the US and Europe.  On the other hand, many traders focused on individual stocks--especially active traders--are doing quite well.  What's up with that?

The current stock market is not a stock market; it's a market of stocks.  Some sectors have literally gone nowhere in the last few months, such as financial shares (XLF) and industrials (XLI).  Small and medium cap shares (IWM) have similarly traded in a relatively narrow range for months, as have stocks outside the U.S. (EFA).  On the other hand, we see technology shares (XLK) powering to new highs, along with communications stocks (XLC) and consumer discretionary shares (XLY).

What makes the stock market unique--to use a phrase popular at SMB--is that there is always something "in play":  some sphere of opportunity.  The tricky part is that those areas of opportunity are always changing.  Just as important as how to trade is knowing what to trade.  Because the stock market is so diverse, with so many sectors and companies, developing traders are most likely to succeed by focusing their efforts on current areas of opportunity.  Sometimes it will be with an individual stock or sector.  Sometimes it will be with the entire market.  In an asset class with thousands of things to trade, there's usually something promising that is setting up.

Developing traders need to work on improving their game, but also make sure they're playing the right game.  The lesson of recent markets is that even the best fishermen will struggle if they're casting their lines in the wrong lakes.

Further Reading:

Managing Your Trading Business

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