Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Seven Straight Strong Days: QQQQ

The QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Index) has been up for seven consecutive sessions for a total gain of 6.9%. Moreover, each of the seven days has closed nearer to its high than to its low for the day. I went back to March, 2003 (N = 703) to see what happens after such a period of strength. For the sample overall, the next seven days average a gain of .58% (406 up, 297 down). For the 47 occasions in which QQQQ has risen more than 5% over a seven-day period, the next seven days have averaged a gain of .43% (29 up, 18 down). Clearly, seven-day strength in QQQQ has not provided a bullish edge over the next seven days; nor has it been bearish.

I then looked at seven-day strong periods in QQQQ where six or more of the days closed closer to their highs than to their lows (N = 22). The next seven days averaged a gain of .28% (14 up, 8 down). Interestingly, we've only had six occasions in which all seven days during a strong period closed strong; the next seven days averaged a loss of -1.62% (3 up, 4 down).

In short, seven day strength in QQQQ has not given us further upside momentum over the next seven days. Indeed, the strongest closing seven day periods have had somewhat weaker results over the next seven days compared to the periods with fewer days closing strong.