Focusing on Opportunity

 

10/5/2025 - No amount of changing your bait, casting your fishing rod differently, and improving your mental outlook will help you catch fish if you're fishing in the wrong body of water.  Many traders experience frustration in their work, not because of any intrinsic emotional problems and not because they need to tweak their entries/exits, but because they are not focusing their trading on the areas of greatest opportunity.  If what you're trading isn't moving much, no switching of technical indicators, trading styles, or psychological exercises will help you make significant returns.

Consider the U.S. stock market this past month.  Look at returns in semiconductor stocks (SMH) over that period; then look at returns in consumer staples shares (XLP) over the same period; and then look at regional banking shares (KRE).  Participants in those markets were fishing in very different ponds.

A major source of movement in the stock market comes from rotation from one group of sectors to others, as institutions pursue investment themes.  Catching these rotations is a great way to find the best fishing ponds.  It's important to make sure we're playing the right games before we work on improving the game we're playing.