Monday, March 29, 2010

Morning Briefing for March 29th: Pulling Back

9:13 AM CT - I added the top chart to show how we're trading in a range thus far today, with volume building between 1167 and 1169 and the value-weighted average price at 1168. Cumulative Delta is very modestly positive on the day thus far; NYSE TICK is mixed. Note how we continue to see sector rotation: the sectors that have been relatively weak of late (commodity-related sectors, health care) have caught a bid today; the sectors that have been stronger (consumer discretionary, financial) have seen some selling. Overall, that keeps us in a range.

We're seeing stocks trading in a multiday range, with resistance in the 1170 area and support around 1160. We're also seeing a weak USD and firm commodities; I'll be looking to some of these intermarket relationships to handicap the odds of a break from the trading range. Note also that Russell 2000 stocks are continuing to underperform the large caps--another relationship I'll be watching in early trade today. I'll update this post later in the AM.