Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Morning Briefing for December 2nd: Near the Top of the Range

The daily chart of the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures nicely illustrates the multiday range that we've been in, with multiple attempts to pierce the 1111/1112 area. I am watching that price area closely to see if rally attempts can broaden. Recent attempts have lagged both among small caps and among financial shares. Strength in those areas, accompanying broad market strength, would suggest a meaningful upside breakout. Absent that, we have seen solid support around the 1085 region, with the one effort to pierce that level quickly reversed during the Thanksgiving drop. Overall, my sense is that we are seeing a flat correction, with solid year-end buying containing selling and an acceptance of value above 1100. If so, this should lead to meaningfully higher prices as we wrap up 2009 and begin the new year.