Well, a storm has knocked out power and my cable connection, so I'm sitting in a restaurant with Wi-Fi service, away from my market data, catching up on email and reviewing the day's news. It looks as though the McCain/Palin ticket has caught a bounce from the convention and now leads the Obama/Biden ticket in the polls. In general, I try to steer clear of politics; my general attitude is that the Republicans have managed to do everything possible during their tenure to ensure that they are unelectable; the Democrats are managing to do everything possible to demonstrate that it's never too late to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
One conundrum pondered by political writers is why the Democratic ticket is not enjoying greater strength in the polls, given the voters' mood toward the political parties. Is there a hidden race factor at work? Is it nefarious media influence?
I think not. My rule, politically incorrect as it may be, is that America generally elects the candidate who is most manly. Now manly is a dated term; it's an amalgam of youthful energy and tough grit. In the nether reaches of academe--and many parts of society--it is decidedly unacceptable to be an alpha male. That is associated with aggression, not to mention an insensitivity toward the multitude of groups vying for elite victimhood status.
But America likes manly men. They populate action movies; they make great sports heroes; and they are prominent on the best seller lists. They get things done, and they aren't troubled by doubts or nuances. If you've read those novels about Jack Reacher, Bob Lee Swagger, or Mitch Rapp, you know what manly is all about.
Eisenhower vs. Stevenson? The manly guy wins. Truman vs. Dewey? The "give 'em hell" guy upsets the effete Easterner. Kennedy had the vibrancy of youth and the dash of a PT boat commander over Nixon. Reagan was the cowboy over Carter. It's not a Democrat or Republican thing. Look at the vigor of Bill Clinton over a wooden Bob Dole. Bush could talk tough and direct over a Kerry or Gore--not unlike Nixon's realism over McGovern's idealism.
What's more, you don't have to be a man to be manly. Margaret Thatcher, Golda Meir: those were tough leaders. That's why the initial take on Sarah Palin has been positive. Does she have any well-formed positions on global economics or foreign affairs? Of course not. But she hunts and she eats moose. Manly.
So that's why the polls have shifted. One guy talks in idealistic platitudes, the other struts out his ordeals as a POW. It's Dewey and Truman all over again. I'm not sure Republicans have earned the right to four more years, but unless Democrats--in the felicitous phrase of my daughter--"grow a pair", we're likely to see another manly man in the White House.
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18 comments:
What's your take on interest rates, short term and long term treasury yields going forward?
The manly men including Condie, weren't so smart. Maybe you're right, how about a slow deliberate thinker that waits patiently to make a decision. Oh yeah, Kerry tried that but he a tad too slow. Will Obama be quicker?
Americans are, in general, low-information voters. Therefore, it is not surprising that they continue to elect people who, in general, play shallow arguments over true policy debates.
This explains why we are so military hungry...
Though I heard a different perspective. It is said that only 1 time in I don't know, 50 years or so, the shorter man won the presidential election. In other words, subconsciously, America votes for the taller man.
I'm a little bit surprised you don't use the term 'machoism' instead of manly men.
I write to support your foray into into this realm, and note once again how astute your observations are, regardless of where and how they are applied.
That said, and accepting the premises that on the face of it, one 'pair' of candidates may present themsleves as more 'manly' than another, and that that may also 'hold more sway' with some voters...
I personally hope that this election season, voters from both genders are able to vote for a true change of leadership. As you so aptly noted, it is far from clear, that the GOP has provided any evidence they deserve another 4 years, and in my opinion, all too much they do not.
Perhaps, in a sense, it can be reduced down to the essense of your post...since change requires courage, it may be easier for many voters to accept and go along with anyone that, on the face of it, seems to 'have a pair', when in fact, voting for real change may require the voters themselves to be the ones that possess the pair.
Any way you slice it, it is time for a seminal change.
As much as i really think both parties are part of a greater agenda toward globalism, (which i am not a fan of) at least during this time of political corruption on a global scale, if Mcain gets in, capital gains will probably be lower, and that is a good thing! I was a Ron Paul supppoter myself, and would vote for Jesse Ventura if he runs in 2012, we need to get back to the consitution or whats left of it.
I think you 'get it'. Image is 90% of the game. Can you imagine a whimpy Treasury Secretary trying to manage this crisis? No sale.
And I loved your "That is associated with aggression, not to mention an insensitivity toward the multitude of groups vying for elite victimhood status."
You ought to moonlight as a political commentator.
Dear Dr. Steenbarger,
Manliness doesn't pay the bills.
Hunting moose doesn't win wars.
Growing a pair (gotta love the young and bold :)) has little to do with successfully building a nation and prevailing in the world (thank goodness - think suicide bombers).
Unless Americans are able to tell the difference between true courage (p.e. Bush Sr. - regardless of agreement or disagreement regarding policies) and macho poses (Bush Jr's "Bring them on" and the Osama wanted-dead-or-alive poster - ahem, where is he?, it's only been 7 years), the US is doomed. Sorry to say.
232 years ago the Founding Fathers risked and "pledged to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our Sacred Honor" for nothing but a few ideals. They must be revolving in their graves.
Thank you for the indicator update and everything else. All the best,
Jorge
Doc, this post made me think of an old adage that went something like "genius is simply superior abilities of observation".
If there's even a sliver of truth to that -- you're a genius. Thanks for the always enjoyable and enlightening words you write. Best, Charles Upton
Banged the nail on the head...
(Unfortunately for this Obama supporter)
DJF
Great, but you forgot Arnold. See Wikipedia "girlie men"
I'm often reminded of why Plato chose Philosophy over Politics and your post is another reminder...
Certainly, Plato was "manly" in his looks and was interested in politics as a young man but shifted toward philosophy when he came to believe that politicians did not think clearly enough about the proper relationship between order and the ideal truth.
Plato became especially disillusioned with politics when his mentor, Socrates, was forced by political leaders to renounce his philisophical beliefs or die: Socrates chose to die.
It is no wonder that one of Plato's greatest quotes is about politicians:
"One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors."
Thanks to Plato and to you, Dr. Brett, for provoking and promoting thought...
Kent @ The Financial Philosopher
The Jr senator from Illinois is a potempkin politician.
We need a man who has soul, a mind and spirit. Only one man approaches that. I'll leave it to you all to guess who that is.
George
Looking at races from last 100 years, democrats don't win unless running against a GOP incumbent. JFK is the only exception. This suggests Obama is 4 years too late or early. Of course 100 years may just be too small a sample.
Excellent post, and since my computer had a major crash, I'll take a moment to suggest I will vote for "Mr." Palin! As good a choice as any, being nobody can fix our financial crises until it fixes itself.
Hi HPT,
I continue to see the market pricing in economic weakness rather than inflation--
Brett
Thanks to all for the great comments. I totally agree that the manly image can devolve into a kind of macho and that such machismo is a poor substitute for genuine strength. Speak loudly and carry a small stick seems to be the order of the day; quite a reversal of Teddy Roosevelt's "manly" dictum.
Brett
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