Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Strong Open After a Weak Close

Quick note for this morning. We closed at the bottom end of the day's range yesterday, with SPY down by more than half a percent. Since March, 2003 (N = 796), we've had 26 occasions in which this has occurred and the market the next day has opened up more than .25%. By the close of the day *following* the up open, the market has been up by an average of .29% (16 up, 10 down), much stronger than the average open to next day close of .08% (434 up, 362 down) for the sample overall. Interestingly, however, I don't show any edge for the open to close move the same day as the strong open.

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