Sunday, September 29, 2024

Two Paths to Trading Success

 
There are two very distinctive paths to trading success:

The first path is to study market action in great detail and identify patterns associated with large market moves.  When those set up, the successful trader has seen and charted so many of those examples that they can pounce on the opportunity with large size.  Also because the successful trader has observed so many explosive moves, they are sensitive to when the explosion is *not* occurring and can exit with controlled risk.  For this kind of trader, a key psychological strength is patience.  Much of success lies in not trading until the outstanding opportunity comes along.  Another important psychological strength is aggression.  The very successful trader is not just right, but recognizes when they are right and is able to go for it in size.

The second path to great market success is to trade broad rather than big.  This is the path of many successful hedge fund managers.  They search and search and research and research and look for opportunities in different markets, in different parts of the world, and in different time frames.  None of the positions are necessarily very large, but the combination of the positions makes for a sizable portfolio.  Because the opportunities are relatively uncorrelated, the trader can make large amounts of money even when some views don't play out.  The broad trader is placing so many bets with edge that consistent returns follow.

Team structures help the first path to success, as a recent video from SMB Capital indicates.  Having multiple eyes on the short-term price action of many stocks and markets increases the odds of finding the truly special opportunities.

Team structures are essential to the second path to success, because team members with different areas of expertise and experience contribute unique ideas to a broad portfolio.

You can win by trading big.  You can win by trading broad.  It's tough to win trading in isolation.

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