Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Three Perspectives on Stock Market Strength

The cumulative line of NYSE TICK has once again hit all-time highs, as large cap indexes now stand close to their own high water marks.  Overall, I am not seeing a change in the bull market dynamics, though there has certainly been a high degree of sector rotation.

The results of the rotation can be seen in the bottom two charts.  Fewer shares across the common stock universe are registering fresh three-month highs as we approach the highs in SPX (middle chart); we're also seeing fewer new highs vs. lows among the S&P 500 stocks (bottom chart).  

All of this is consistent with mature bull market cycle behavior, but it is not clear to me that we are on the cusp of any bear market.  The absence of broad strength does not necessarily imply the presence of broad weakness.

Further Reading:  Countertrend trade execution in a trending market