Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Morning Briefing for June 30th

After a very narrow range trade on Monday afternoon, we're now seeing very narrow trade in the overnight session, perhaps in anticipation of a slew of economic numbers later this morning (bottom chart). We remain above the 6/25 and 6/26 highs (purple line); a move back below those levels would target the range midpoint around 912.50. Strength sustained above the line would target the late May/early June trading range, as part of the longer ongoing range trade. Note the timing of economic reports coming out in the U.S. (see Twitter post) and overseas this morning. If those cannot take us out of range trade, I'd expect quite a quiet afternoon.

8:51 AM CT - The Market Delta chart nicely shows how we've moved back into the narrow range when buying after Chicago purchasing manager data could not sustain a move above the overnight range. With strength in the U.S. dollar vs. euro and weakness in oil and gold this morning, themes will be weighing against upside for stocks. Let's see how those themes respond to consumer confidence data at 9 AM CT.