Friday, February 01, 2008

Friday Potpourri

Some loose ends and random thoughts at the end of the week. Mali came bounding into the room when she heard the music; no accounting for the tastes of cats. What's true is true, she *is* my wife's girlfriend and sleeps with us every night...hmmm...

* Blog Traffic - January was a record month for visits and page views on the blog. This fits the pattern of increased traffic during periods of market weakness and uncertainty. (The previous traffic record was in August). I note, however, that the last couple of days traffic has decreased as the market has ground higher. This has been an uncanny sentiment measure: traffic peaked the day of the market low. To give an idea of the blog's overall traffic growth, there were about 8200 visits in January, 2006; 45,000 visits in January, 2007; and 87,000 visits in January, 2008. 75% of the traffic comes from the U.S. and Canada; 16% from Europe; and 7% from Asia. I'm deeply appreciative of the continued interest and support.

* Cross-Blog Conversations - I see that Chris Perruna has picked up on the idea of carrying on conversations across blogs. If you're a financial blogger and offer commentary on a post here (or would like me to react to a post of yours), by all means email me the URLs. In the interim, I'll post a few words this weekend about Chris' worthy topic regarding trading mistakes to avoid at all costs.

* Tracking New Highs/Lows - I continue to find this one of the most helpful indicators; here's an interesting look from Trader's Narrative.

* Questioning Eyeballs - Teresa Lo wonders about the MSFT-YHOO hook-up; also check her daily digests for a nice summary of news and themes.

* Technical Analysis Ideas - Investing Idea presents interesting technical analysis and wonders if India is ready to break out. Talking about technical analysis, I like how Brian Shannon tracks the market vs. its daily volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Nice way of detecting a trending market early. The good trends stay above or below VWAP for most of the session.

I'll have indicators updates this weekend and more links. Right now, Mali's come back into the room to hear her favorite Mastercard commercial. That cat...

7 comments:

Prashanth said...

The IFN Blog Chart is quite dated. At that point we did have a breakout and recently have retraced a bit of the gains too.

Regards

Prashanth

Mr. Monopoly said...

Note that the Investing Idea blog post is dated April 2007.

I studied that chart for a while before I figured out what was wrong ;)

Very good blog - you are on my daily reading list.

Anatrader said...

Brett

Your (Cat) Mali would be reaping lots in the Year of the Rat!

With the Lunar New Year falling on February 7 2008, may we all see and receive a cornucopia of goodies.

Gong xi fa cai!

Adam said...

Brett ~

The geniuses at MSFT don’t seem to realize that some businesses are essentially winner-take-all propositions. In publishing, a minute percentage of books provide the vast majority of profits. The same is true in movies and music sales.

The folks raking in loot on this deal will be investment bankers whose outsize fees are a transfer of wealth from shareholders to February bonuses.

Can anyone remember the name of the most popular search engine prior to GOOG?

Adam.

Anatrader said...

May I take a guess?

Quote:
On January 11, 2001, America Online, a favorite of dot-com investors and pioneer of dial-up internet access, acquired Time Warner, the world's largest media company. Within two years, boardroom disagreements drove out both of the CEOs who made the deal, and in October 2003 AOL Time Warner dropped "AOL" from its name. The acquisition thus became a symbol of the dot-coms' challenge to "old economy" companies and the old economy's ultimate survival. The revolutionary optimism of the boom faded, and analysts once again recognized the relevance of traditional business thinking.Unquote

Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. said...

Hi,

My bad on the chart; thanks for pointing out--

Brett

Declan (@zignals.com) said...

Brett,

I did some quick and dirty analysis using my blog traffic as the basis for an on-balance-visit style indicator. There were indications for marking bottoms and perhaps tops too. May is proving to be very interesting. Linked here for relevance to this post:

http://zignalsblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/blog-traffic-and-market-reversals.html

Best wishes,
Declan