Thursday, January 10, 2008

A Trio of Currency Trends and Other Market Views




* A Trio of Trending Currency Pairs - Excellent charts from the Barchart site show a steady appreciation of the Yuan vs. the U.S. Dollar; considerable Euro strength vs. the British Pound; and a generally strengthening Yen vs. U.S. Dollar. Indeed, the U.S. Dollar has looked weak vs. the Euro and the Yen, reflecting diversification of currency reserves overseas.

* S&P Resistance - The broken trendline in the S&P 500 Index is now acting as resistance, as charted by Trader Mike.

* To the Rescue? - Kirk offers more fine links, including a very interesting one on the "plunge protection team" coming to the stock market's aid.

* Which Period Are We In? - Henry Carstens finds different expectations going forward depending if we view the current market as similar to 2000-2002 or similar to any time since 1982 other than 2000-2002.

* Rolling Over - Millionaire Now! looks for a big rollover, with an unwinding of leveraged assets. If Barry Ritholtz is correct, investors have further to go in their grief work.

* Bottoming? - Abnormal Returns links a number of excellent posts, including an indicator at bottoming levels and a view of the relationship between currency and stock markets.

* Top Research Stories - Research Recap highlights the top stories of 2007.

2 comments:

Brandon Wilhite said...

Check out a daily chart of GBP/CHF if you really want to see a massacre. The GBP/JPY chart doesn't look too hot either (for GBP). Generally GBP has been weaker than USD over the past mo. or so, and CHF has been strongest of the bunch. JPY has remained strong(ish). We've had 2/3 of yesterday's moves in the currency markets already today, and Frankfurt hasn't even opened yet.

BW

Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. said...

Thanks, Brandon; we're seeing *very* interesting currency cross-currents, given twin concerns over economic weakness and inflation--

Brett