Wednesday, August 22, 2007

How's The Money Flowing--And More Ideas for Midweek

* Money Flows in Troubled Sectors - Home builders haven't meaningfully participated in the post Fed-announcement bounce. LEN and TOL, for example, closed at lows for this bear move. Money flow has been negative 5 of the last 7 sessions in LEN; solid outflows 2 of the last 3 sessions in HD. Financial stocks are off their lows, but money flow has been tepid. GS has seen positive flows 3 of the last four sessions, but net outflows over that same time. LEH has experienced outflows 3 of the last four sessions. An exception: solid inflows at MER for the last four trading sessions.

* Money Flows From Stronger Sectors - Technology not so impressive. IBM, INTC, and MSFT have seen outflows six of the last eight sessions; Staples stronger: KO and PG have seen inflows two of the last three sessions, JNJ has been positive for the last three sessions. We've had negative money flows in XOM seven of the last eight trading sessions, but VLO has had inflows three of the last four sessions.

* When Traders Have Been Burned - I've been talking with quite a few lately. The natural tendency is to trade to not lose, not to trade to win. The other natural tendency is to focus on one's losses and shortcomings, rather than get back to one's strengths.

* Less Bearishness - We've had three straight sessions in which equity put volume has been lower than equity call volume, a sign of some trader relief after the Fed announcement. We haven't had such a string of three days since 7/19. Indeed, we've had equity put volume exceed call volume 13 of the last 20 sessions.

* Risk-Reward Looking Better - Henry Carstens has updated his forecast and finds more promise going out 20 days.

* Stock Picking Ideas - More good links from The Kirk Report, including 20 stocks trading below their average P/E ratio and names from the Berkshire portfolio. James Altucher offers some yield plays trading at attractive prices.

* Real Tick and MB Trading Customers - Stock Tickr is conducting a beta test of its link to those platforms, so that traders can automatically keep tabs of their trade metrics and performance without manually entering data. Beta testers get an extended free trial and a discount on future subscriptions. One nice feature of Stock Tickr is the ability to share trade ideas with others in the community and see what's hot.