4/9/2025 - So much of trading success is knowing when to switch off and when it's time for all hands on deck. I encourage those interested in studying markets (and learning from today's market) to track the short-term action in the NYSE TICK alongside price action in SPX. There are several great tells for the big market reversal, including very negative TICK readings (<-800) that could not push the market to fresh lows (between 13:00 and 13:18 ET), followed by massive positive TICK readings (>1000) that launched the rally (beginning 13:19 ET). We only see huge TICK readings when stocks are either all trading lower or trading higher at the same time. That only happens when institutions are moving baskets of stocks. The selling that could not move us lower set us up for buying that lifted us much higher. Great, great market lesson.
4/9/2025 - Trading crazy volatile markets is quite different from trading slow ones. I have had to adjust my charts, so that I focus on bars representing 1000 contracts traded as my quickest "time" unit rather than 5000 traded. This meant that the overbought and oversold levels I track with the adaptive moving averages are hit more quickly. I use the NYSE TICK; Dow TICK; NASDAQ TICK; and SPX TICK to gauge buying and selling interest across different segments of the market and had to switch those to 15 second bars. The same patterns that I track in slower markets--overbought signals at lower price levels; buying activity that can no longer push the market higher--show up at these higher frequencies, but there are more patterns that show up during the day. The result is that I have to be much more switched on, which means I need to be able to take mini-breaks that allow me to reset. I also find that I have to talk to myself more often to maintain focus on levels for entry, exit, etc. The goal is to maximize attention and minimize distraction. By adjusting my charts, limiting my trading to familiar patterns, taking frequent mini-breaks, and talking out my ideas, I help ensure that the market's frenzy doesn't become my own. Whew!
4/8/2025 - There are two purposes behind every great vacation period: getting away and getting to. We get away from routine, and we relax and rejuvenate. That's good, but not good enough. We also need to get to something positive and inspiring, whether it's the company of relatives or an amazing culture we haven't experienced before. If, indeed, we find a way to take a regular "vacation", how can we step back from work, but also step toward something that energizes us and inspires us for the coming week? The busier the markets and the more challenging the trading, the more important it is to come back refreshed for another day and week of opportunity. What is your routine for exiting routine?
4/7/2025 - When we take a vacation, what are we vacating? Our daily routines, our usual surroundings, of course. But the right vacations vacate our usual frames of mind, opening us up to fresh experiences and expanded awareness. Margie and I are traveling the Amalfi Coast in Italy, sharing the experience with children and grandchildren and taking in breathtaking views and bustling villages. New experiences lead to novel frames of mind, and those can lead to powerful insights.
Vacations are perfect opportunities, not only to recharge, but to reset priorities and forge fresh paths. The risk, for so many who work hard, is that routine--essential to efficiency--eventually leads to staleness. Yes, we need established processes to be consistent in our performance, and we also need to step back from routine to recharge. Ideally, we take a "vacation" each day by stepping back from chores and routines and immersing ourselves in something interesting, exciting, and inspiring. Without the larger vacations, however, we run the risk of losing the passion that comes from vision. Getting away from life's details is sometimes the best way of getting in touch with life's purpose--
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