Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Market Views Ahead of the Fed

* Weakness Across Sectors - Looking at the 40 stocks in my basket, chosen evenly from eight S&P 500 sectors, my technical strength measure (a quantitative measure of trending) finds 4 in uptrends, 3 neutral, and 33 in downtrends. In a different show of weakness, we had over 3000 stocks across the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE making new 20-day lows on Tuesday. This has only occurred 12 times since September, 2002; one week later, the S&P 500 Index was up 7 times, down 5, for an average gain of 1.02%, much higher than the .16% average five-day gain for the remainder of the sample.

* Seeking Quiet - I was interested to see Charles Kirk's posting on noise-canceling headphones. I use a Bose variety during some of my guided imagery sessions to tune out distractions and help cancel some of the internal noise. Reducing physical activity and tension while eliminating outside stimulation is part of the meditative discipline, and I find it useful for getting back to calm, focused states during the market day.

* Useful Wisdom - The value of admitting errors, the perils of taking big chances, and other nuggets of wisdom are part of the review at Abnormal Returns.

* ETF Update - A Dash of Insight into the ETFs that Jeff Miller is rating.

* Bounce? - Quantifiable Edges examines a breadth indicator and what it suggests.

* Technically Speaking - Barry Ritholtz offers some perspective on technical analysis.

* VIX Views - Daily Options Report on the different implications of high and low VIX.

* Sentiment Indicator - VIX and More tracks the put/call ratio for SPY options.

* Commodity Patterns - CXO reviews a study of how commodity markets respond to surprise news events.