Monday, April 07, 2008

Two Early Morning Themes to Start the Week

* Knocking at the Door of Long-Term Resistance - This chart of the June ES futures is annotated with the number of NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE stocks making fresh 65 day highs (green numbers) and lows (red numbers). You can see that we had many fewer lows on the market's second dip down and, this past week, new highs have expanded. A breakout above the 1400-area resistance on an increased number of stocks making new highs would be a bullish development for this market. The market has behaved well since registering an overbought signal in my Cumulative Demand/Supply Indicator; that tends to occur during strong bull legs in the market. We need to see an expansion of Wednesday's level of 455 new 65-day highs to keep the rally going.

* Drumbeats of War? - The report from Debka suggests that the U.S. and Israel are coordinating a pending military action against Iran. This source has been wrong before on the Iran issue. Still, this report from Britain perked up some ears, especially given recent Israeli decisions to distribute gas masks to the population amidst week-long civil defense drills.

* A Note of Thanks - Shout out to Business Week for its recognition of Trader Feed as one of the top financial blogs.