Monday, November 19, 2007

Market Views for a Monday

* Getting a Market View - I summarize my indicators and market view in the latest Weblog entry. The expansion of stocks making fresh 65-day lows and failure of the market to build on bounces on Friday were negatives for the bulls. Some of that weakness is carrying through in the preopening market on Monday as I write. Note from the Weblog that we're seeing a bit of strength in the Cumulative NYSE TICK--the first in a while. I'll be watching that very closely during Monday's trade. I'll want to see a drying up of 20-day lows and an expansion of 20-day highs before carrying any meaningful long exposure. Meanwhile, I'm trying to stay grounded in best practices.

* Worth Reading - Abnormal Returns has quite a few interesting articles among its Sunday links, including ETFs of ETFs (the ability to buy and sell portfolios in a single stock), seasonal patterns in the stock market, and a fresh reading of Fed policy.

* Fascinating Research - CXO Advisory summarizes a thought-provoking study of the sectors that behave best when the Fed is easing vs. tightening. See also the eye-opening findings about our misperceptions of volatility.

* Trading ETFs - For those trading ETFs, here's an excellent, practical series of posts from A Dash of Insight.

* Prospects for Recession - The Big Picture looks to retail and takes a look at the week ahead, including a very thoughtful analysis of four scenarios for markets and the economy from Gavekal.

* Inflation on the Horizon? - Econbrowser takes a hard look at the data: the rise in gold and oil and whether that portends inflation.


Rodney said...

In many of your posts you discuss NYSE tick distribution, specifically today you suggested waiting for a "positive TICK shift before jumping long".

I need mechanical how to information.

How do you monitor this distribution?

Maybe more importantly how should we monitor this in real time?

Thanks in advance for your input.


Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. said...

Hi Rodney,

If you perform an advanced search in Alexa or Technorati and look for "NYSE TICK" in a search of the TraderFeed URL, you'll see the background on this indicator. Basically, I'm looking at how the distribution of NYSE TICK readings compares with the 20-day average distribution--