Thursday, January 22, 2026

BRETT STEENBARGER'S TRADING PSYCHOLOGY RESOURCE CENTER


Below are resources to help traders become their own trading coaches, improve their trading processes, and develop a positive work-life balance.  All the TraderFeed posts also contain links to valuable resources and perspectives.  


RADICAL RENEWAL - Free blog book on trading, psychology, spirituality, and leading a fulfilling life

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The Three Minute Trading Coach Videos

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Forbes Articles:


My coaching work applies evidence-based psychological techniques (see my background and my book on the topic) to the improvement of productivity, quality of life, teamwork, leadership, hiring best practices, and creativity/idea generation.  An important part of the "solution-focused" approach that I write about is that we can often best grow by focusing on what we do well and how we do it--and then doing more of what works for us.  The key is to know our cognitive, interpersonal, and personality strengths and leverage those in the pursuit of performance. 


FURTHER RESOURCES




I wish you the best of luck in your development as a trader and in your personal evolution.  In the end, those are one and the same:  paths to becoming who we already are when we are at our best.

Brett
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The Special Talents and Skills of Short-Term Trading

 
1/22/2026 - Talents represent our inborn strengths.  As Goethe points out, we find our greatest happiness and fulfillment when what we're doing in life is aligned with our talents.  To make the most of our talent, we typically have to develop skills in any field.  Those are not inborn; they are conveyed through mentoring and practice.  Skills put talents into action; together they create success.  The football player who has natural athletic talents spends hours and hours in practice and in sessions with coaches to hone the skills that will turn raw talent into successful performance.  A key performance principle is that elite performers typically spend more time in practice and rehearsal than in formal performance.  That process of deliberate practice not only hones skills, but develops the winning mindset of the performer.  It is the role of the coach to structure practice sessions and provide the feedback that will allow performers to make the most of their talents.

Without mentoring/coaching and structured deliberate practice, talents never find their way to skills and elite performance.  In the upcoming posts, we'll take a look at the special talents and skills required by short-term trading and the ways in which these can be honed through the right kinds of learning processes.  

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Finding Hidden Edges In The Market

 
1/21/2026 - One last edge that is hidden because few people are looking there:  Let's take the percentage of stocks in the SPX each day that are trading above their longer-term moving averages.  In this case, we'll look at the percentage above their 50-day averages (once again, data can be found on the Market Charts site).  We then look at see what the index (SPY) does five days later.  Sure enough, when the percentage of stocks above their 50-day averages is in its highest quartile, the next five day returns in SPY are subnormal:  .11% vs almost four times that amount when they're in their lowest quartile.  This makes sense...overbought markets tend to pull back and oversold markets are more likely to bounce.

But, wait!  What do we see when we look at the next 50-day returns?  Sure enough, returns are significantly more favorable following the strongest 50-day periods and after the weakest 50-day periods.  In other words, at longer time horizons, we see both momentum and reversal.

What this means is that, following a strong 50-day period of breadth, on average pullbacks are meant to be bought.  This goes hidden, however, because traders are unwilling/unable to take losses and bail out long before the bounce tends to occur.  To take advantage of the edge, it's necessary to think like an investor as well as like a trader.  And that dual mindset is rare indeed!

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1/20/2026 - Do we find hidden edges among small cap stocks as well as the large cap issues in the SPX?  For this analysis, we go back to 2015 and examine the percentage of stocks in the S&P 600 universe ($SML) that are trading above their 3, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.  These data are readily available on the excellent MarketCharts site.  I specifically examined the variability of the breadth readings: the standard deviation of each day's data.  The variability captures two market scenarios:  when short term breadth turns much higher following a longer-term period of weakness and when it turns much lower following a longer-term period of strength.  Note that this is a different way of identifying breadth thrusts.

When variability has been in its highest quartile (thrust conditions), the next 20 day return in $SML has been +1.70%.  That compares to a 20-day return of -.05% when breadth readings have been least variable.

There are many other patterns that can be found in the small cap data.  

Once again, the idea is not that you should trade small caps or trade them based on these particular historical patterns.  Rather, the idea is that a large number of traders focus on the information that is most readily available and that takes the least analysis (chart patterns, news reports), leaving significant opportunities to those willing and able to collect and analyze data.  Meaningful edges are to be found over time frames longer than most traders look, and that's why they're hiding in plain sight.

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1/19/2026 - Many traders view technical indicators as something to chart; then they look for chart patterns.  In fact, many technical indicators produce data that, when backtested, yield important hidden edges.  The stockcharts.com site gives daily readings on a number of technical measures that can be downloaded and tested.  For example, when a large number of stocks in the NYSE display an improving Chaikin Money Flow (top quartile of distribution since 2021), the next 30 days in SPY average a gain of only +.55% compared with almost three times that much for the rest of the sample.  When a large number of stocks display a weakening Money Flow (weakest half of the distribution), returns average twice as much over the next 30 days than the rest of the sample.

Consider Bollinger Bands.  When very few stocks in the NYSE close above their upper Bollinger Bands since 2021 (lowest quartile of distribution), the next 30 days in SPY have shown a dramatic upside edge:  three times the average returns of the remainder of the sample.  

Most powerful is when relatively uncorrelated indicators display historical edges that line up with one another.  Conviction is not just a state of mind.  It follows from rigorous analysis and understanding of market behavior.

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1/18/2026 - Now let's take a look at a different hidden edge in the market:  not strength, but the absence of weakness.  For this analysis, we'll go back to August, 2010 when I began collecting these data (available via Barchart.com) and take a look at the number of stocks in the NYSE universe that are making fresh monthly highs and fresh monthly lows.  What we find is that next 20-day returns in SPY average +1.44% when monthly lows are in their lowest quartile.  That is about double the return of the next two quartiles.  When few stocks are weak, overall market declines are rarer.  It takes weakness in some areas of the market to lead the broad averages lower.

Interestingly, next 20-day returns are also superior (+1.27%) when new monthly lows are in their highest quartile.  In other words, when we have lots of stocks making new lows and the market is flushing out, that has often been a good time to find value.  A similar pattern shows quite superior returns 50 days out when three-month new lows are either very low or very high.  

So why are these edges hidden to most traders?  They haven't taken the time to download and analyze the data, and they are looking for things to trade in the next few minutes and days--not what has dramatic edge over a period of weeks to months.  The need to trade actively hides the edges that play out over time.

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1/16/2026 - Some of the best hidden edges in the market occur, not when institutions are piling into stocks or fleeing them, but when they are rotating existing assets from one sector of the market/economy to others.  This sector rotation can easily be tracked by following the breadth within each sector.  In this post, we'll use the percentage of stocks trading above their 20-day moving averages as a breadth proxy for each sector.  (Data available from Barchart.com).

So let's take the breadth within the energy sector (XLE) minus the breadth of the overall market (SPY).  When energy breadth is in the top half of its distribution since 2020, returns in SPY over the next 10, 20, and 30 days are distinctly subnormal.  Indeed, when energy sector breadth is highest relative to overall market breadth, the returns over the next 3-5 days have been negative--quite a feat in a bull market period!

Energy stocks do well when energy prices are rising.  But that is not an environment that is necessarily good for the overall economy.  Seeing where money is flowing alerts us to potential headwinds and tailwinds in the broad market.

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1/15/2026 - Some of the most promising edges in the stock market are found in places traders generally don't look.  Actually, this dynamic occurs across markets.  For example, the majority of traders in the fixed income (interest rates) markets look for events (central bank policy changes; shifts in patterns of growth) to buy or sell rates.  A more subtle approach looks at how rates vary from one another within and across bond markets and trades those relative relationships.  So, for instance, if nothing has changed in central bank policies and in macroeconomic news, one part of the rate curve may be priced cheaply relative to another point, or rates in one region of the world will be expensive relative to another region.  This offers the opportunity to buy what's cheap, sell what's expensive, and profit from the "mean reversion" when rates return to a more normal relationship.  

This is a great example of how we can improve our trading psychology by expanding our understanding and perception of opportunity.

So let's start looking at relative relationships within the stock market.  I went back to 2020 and calculated the difference between the percentage of stocks above their 5-day moving averages within the consumer staples sector minus the percentage of stocks above their 5-day moving averages within the consumer discretionary sector.  These data are readily available on the Barchart.com site.  When investors are expecting growth and a strong economy, they are drawn to the consumer discretionary shares which benefit from consumer spending on things like travel, entertainment, etc.  When investors are expecting economic weakness, they expect that spending on essential staples will continue, while discretionary spending will decline.  By tracking the percentage of stocks in the consumer staples sector above given moving averages minus the percentage of stocks in the consumer discretionary sector, we have a handy economic sentiment measure.

Interestingly, in the quartile of occasions in which the difference between the percentage of stocks above their 5-day moving averages for XLP (staples) minus those for XLY (discretionary) is greatest, the next 20 days of performance in SPY averages only +.42%.  All other occasions average +1.36%.  When investors flee growth relative to stability, that theme tends to continue in the short run.  When we look at the difference between the percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving averages for XLP minus those for XLY, we find a similar pattern 20-50 days ahead.  Forward returns in SPY are subnormal when investors are fleeing to the safety of staples.

The point isn't that you should run to trade this pattern.  The point is that patterns exist where most traders aren't looking.  While the noobs are looking at directional charts, a world of opportunity is being found by the pros in relative space.  When you have more ways to identify opportunity, you build an opportunity mindset.  Better trading leads to better psychology. 

Friday, January 09, 2026

Self-Care and Performance

 
1/14/2026 - One consistent piece of advice I've given traders is to always, always, always have something more important in your life than trading and P/L.  That might be a very special relationship with a spouse or family; it might be your faith and religion; it might be a career pursuit outside of markets or a life activity you're passionate about.  But trading must fit into your life.  It cannot run your life, and it cannot substitute for the joys that come from our physical, relationship, and spiritual well-being.

When trading becomes all-important, we find our moods and outlook dominated by P/L.  Our self-esteem becomes conditional:  we feel only as good as our performance.  The ups and downs of P/L become ups and downs of our energy level and that stress takes a toll on everything else we do.  One consistent finding from my research on successful traders is that they lead very full lives.  They have lots of sources of joy and energy that sustain them through difficult trading periods.  In broadening our lives, we can cope with any life setback and we maximize overall positive psychology.

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1/13/2026 - The best way to deal with stress is to make sure it doesn't become distress.  All of us feel overloaded and stressed at times with life's challenges and the ups and downs of markets.  The problem is not the stress--that is inevitable--but our letting it accumulate to the point where it turns into anxiety, self-doubt, and a loss of energy.  

Research in positive psychology is clear:  when we balance our sources of stress with activities that bring well-being, we do not experience distress.  This is why it's so important that there be elements in your trading processes that are rewarding and fulfilling to you whether or not you're enjoying solid P/L.  Perhaps what brings you happiness and fulfillment is working closely with other traders and participating in their growth.  Perhaps your well-being comes from learning and the stimulation of finding new ideas and opportunities.  Perhaps your balance comes from life activities outside of trading that are rewarding when markets are not.  

The best way to deal with stress is enjoy a broad portfolio of activities that will always pay off in some fashion.  Happy and fulfilled people do get stressed--life would be boring otherwise!--but they don't fall into the trap of distress.

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1/12/2026 - Our life's tank can be empty, not because we've been working so long and hard, but because the work we're doing does not truly inspire and challenge us.  Similarly, the tank of our romantic and family lives can be empty because we fail to engage in the kind of new, stimulating activities that keep relationships fresh.  When Margie and I felt overloaded with our responsibilities, we didn't automatically assume that we needed rest.  In fact, many times those occasions led us to travel to interesting locations, whether it be a tour of Iceland, a small boat trip to the glaciers surrounding Alaska, or a drive down Italy's Amalfi coast.  Recharging meant making new and different efforts and sharing fresh activities--even if it was just going to a new creperie or looking for cats to rescue.

The answer to burnout is often not to do less, but to do different.  At some point, routine becomes deadening.  Our challenge amidst life's routines is to always pursue activities that energize us, challenge us, and stimulate us.  Work-life balance is great, but what is most important is ensuring that the "life" part of that equation truly gives us life.  Burnout does not come from too much work, but too little rejuvenation.

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1/11/2026 - A great life is the culmination of individual days, weeks, months, and years lived greatly.  Can we lead a meaningful life if we aren't doing things meaningfully on a regular basis?  Can we lead a productive life if productivity isn't our norm?  Such an important question is:  What can I do today that will move me forward toward my goals for the new year and for my life?

I recently tried on a sport coat that I had not worn in quite a while.  In the jacket pocket, I found notes in a diary that I wrote in preparation for a talk to a hedge fund in NYC.  The notes were headed "Questions to Consider" and the first item was as follows:

If every day was like this day:

a)  How would that impact my physical health/wellbeing?
b)  How would that impact my emotional wellness?
c)  How would that impact my significant relationships?

Today is not a toss away trade.  Today is an investment in the future.  What are you doing today that will pay off manyfold in the days to come?

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1/9/2026 - It is very easy--particularly for driven, achievement-oriented people--to work so hard and push so persistently for success that they stop taking proper care of themselves and the people that matter to them.  If we think of our lives as gardens--and our friends, family, and colleagues as the flowers and plants of the garden--then we can ask ourselves how often we're fertilizing, planting, watering, and weeding.  Or, to use another analogy, our relationships are essential sources of emotional and spiritual fuel.  We can work so hard that we burn out and run out of fuel.

Great questions for self-assessment are:  During this past week, how often did I connect meaningfully with people I care about?  How often did I engage in activities that are fun and enjoyable?  That are fresh and stimulating?  Essential to an energized mind state is variety.  That includes activities that work us out physically, that grow us intellectually, that inspire us spiritually, and connect us socially.  When we care for ourselves, we keep ourselves in peak creative condition and peak focus.

If athletes spent all their time working out and playing competitively, their bodies would break down and their performance would suffer.  Perfect performance never comes from perfectionism.  

How we spend our time shapes the value of our life's efforts.  Drive hard and refuel often. 

Monday, January 05, 2026

Marjorie Sue Steenbarger: Leaving Your Legacy

 

1/8/2026 - With Margie's passing, all the family--myself, kids, and grandkids--assembled their photos of her and with her, creating quite an album.  I contributed many pictures and was surprised at how many of them (like the one above) were taken during our travels.  We had pictures from the UK, from Alaska, from Israel, from Europe, from Iceland, and of course from all over the U.S.  I'm convinced that one of the best ways of keeping relationships fresh is to share in fresh experiences.  Seeing and doing new things kept a 42 year marriage fresh.  Inscribed in our wedding rings--and now also on our gravestone--is "Perpetual Passion".  

Keeping the passion alive in any endeavor, whether it be marriage, career, or trading, requires a breaking from routine and a willingness to explore new and different things.  See the world, see and experience the whole trading world, see and experience different people and cultures.  

May we all live life with perpetual passion.

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1/7/2026 - The most recent post encouraged us to focus on the legacy we would like to leave behind and concentrate our efforts on what is truly most important to us.  Might it be possible that the best way to leave our legacy is to connect deeply with the legacies of those we most admire?

A number of years ago, I wrote something that Margie liked so much she had it framed as a gift to me.  It reads "The best way to stand on the shoulders of giants is to hoist them upon our own".  In other words, if we want to elevate our lives, we can do no better than to elevate those we most respect and cherish and draw upon their inspiration and example.

Imagine that you are writing a book that captures the meaning, purpose, and essence of who you are.  Who would you dedicate that book to?  Who would be counted in your "acknowledgements" section?  How can we hoist those people on our shoulders each day, week, month, and year by following their examples?  

In furthering the legacies of those we love and respect through our actions and accomplishments, we build a life worthy of legacy.  By honoring others through our example, we live an honorable life.

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1/6/2026 - I have been touched by the number of traders who have reached out, including ones who shared their personal experiences with Margie.  It's amazing how we have so much more impact than we realize when we live the right kinds of lives.

How would you like to be remembered after you leave this earth?  What impacts would you want to have; what memories would you like to leave?  These are important measures of wealth, and yet we can spend more time anguishing over day to day P/L and ups/downs than on doing the things that enrich our lives--and the lives of others.

Here we are in a new year, so here's a great new year's challenge:  

Imagine that you will pass away at the end of the year.  Knowing that, how would you want to spend 2026?  What would you most want to do to cement your legacy--your impact on those you love, on your community, and on the world?

In this exercise, every single day that passes places you one day closer to your own passing.  There's no time to fret about bad trading or daily frustrations.  Your single mission is to live your life in a way that will truly live on in its positive influence.  

This exercise is more than the making of a new year's resolution.  It is turning your life into an expression of your resolve.

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1/5/2026 - Margie Steenbarger, my wife of 42 years, passed away this weekend.  For me, it's been a tremendous loss and also an inspiration.  Family members have come from all over to be with each other and to celebrate her life.  We have been sharing photos and stories and have created a website where all our memories can be shared for years to come.  Leaving a legacy means leaving others with experiences and lessons that make everyone better.  A life well-lived is a life that keeps living even beyond our passing.  It lives on with those whose lives we have touched.

So what is the mark on the world that you will be leaving when your days come to an end?  How will you live on in ways that enrich the lives of others?  It's great to focus on P/L and the next set of trade ideas, but that will never build your legacy.  It is how we impact others that makes the mark that can't be erased.  

What are you doing right now that will make a positive difference later?

With Margie's passing, a close family has grown even closer and family members that were only loosely connected are now committed to one another.  That was Margie's legacy:  building lasting bonds--in the students she taught, in her family, and, yes, with me.  With her passing, I am committed to becoming a better bond-builder and crafting a legacy as meaningful and valuable as hers.

A saying in the Jewish religion is "May their memory be a blessing", taken from Proverbs 10:7 ("The memory of the righteous is blessed").  When we leave a positive legacy, we don't leave others with a sense of loss, but a sense of having been blessed.  

The legacy we build is the most important P/L of all.