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Exploiting the edge from historical market patterns

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

An End of Month Big Perspective

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Here and in the Trading Psychology Weblog , I typically take a short-term look at markets. At the end of a month, however, let's take a ...

When the VIX Itself Becomes Volatile

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Yesterday, we had an enormous daily rise in the VIX of over 30%. To put this into perspective, we have only had one larger VIX spike in perc...
Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Profiting From Market Fear

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I'm writing this prior to the market close, so it may not precisely match conditions at the close. Nonetheless, I think the underlying ...
Monday, May 29, 2006

Thoughts at the Edge of a Perfect Storm

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Can the financial models of hedge funds and investment banks adequately account for what will happen when everyone makes their decisions fro...
Sunday, May 28, 2006

Asia's Enron

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When you think of hot markets and rapid growth , what comes to mind but China? But almost alone of emerging markets, Shanghai trades below i...

When Emerging Markets Submerge: Another Way Markets Confound Human Nature

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This past week, we saw the Emerging Markets index (EEM) record a sobering 16% drop on a 10-day basis. I was surprised to find that the corre...
Saturday, May 27, 2006

What We Can Learn From Relative Sector Performance

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I have begun a large-scale study of the intercorrelations among equity sectors and asset classes; so far, the study appears promising. I wil...
Friday, May 26, 2006

How Pessimistic Are Traders When Markets Fall?

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On the heels of my last post, which found that rises were more likely to reverse if they were not accompanied by an expansion of equity call...

How Optimistic Are Traders When Markets Rise?

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Thursday's market rose steadily through the day with solid buying, as noted in the Weblog . As an aside, I should note that that's n...
Thursday, May 25, 2006

Finding Solutions to Your Trading Problems

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Note: Well, it's been inconvenient: stuck in Toronto overnight when Chicago's airports shut down last night. I will resume TraderFee...
Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Intraday Participation

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Today gave us a nice opportunity to see how the concept of participation applies to intraday time frames as well. The May 24th entry in the ...
Monday, May 22, 2006

The Importance of Participation

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One of the market variables that has served me the best in determining the likelihood that moves will either continue in their direction or ...
Sunday, May 21, 2006

The Market is Rigged Against Human Nature

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Suppose you had two traders. One--a momentum trader--became optimistic and bought the S&P 500 Index (SPY) every time it rose in price f...
Saturday, May 20, 2006

We Gotta Hot One Today!

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You always know when Randy Jackson, American Idol judge, is excited about a performance. "America," he shouts, "we gotta a h...
Friday, May 19, 2006

The Most Common Trading Problem

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At a gathering of investment bank trainees in suburban New York last night, I was asked my opinion of the most common problem among traders....
Thursday, May 18, 2006

The Market is at an Important Juncture

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After attempting a recovery this AM, the market fell in late trading, making new lows for this recent decline. As a counterpoint to the lat...

What the Relative Range is Telling Us About This Decline

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Recall that the relative range is a measure that compares the range of the last day or week with the median range for the past 20 days or we...
Wednesday, May 17, 2006

What to Expect After a Big Drop on a Big Relative Range

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Today's market, as measured by SPY, dropped about 1.9% on a range that was over 2.3 times its average daily range from the past twenty s...

What To Expect After a Weak Day and a Weak Week

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Today's very weak market has given us more than enough material for an enlightening historical look at edges going forward. The edges ar...

A Momentum Pattern That Seems to Work: The Relative Range

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Here's an interesting application of the relative measurement concept that I've been toying with during the past several posts: Supp...
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About Me

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Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
Author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003), Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006), The Daily Trading Coach (Wiley, 2009), Trading Psychology 2.0 (Wiley, 2015), The Art and Science of Brief Psychotherapies (APPI, 2018) and Radical Renewal (2019) with an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge. Currently writing a book on performance psychology and spirituality. As a performance coach for portfolio managers and traders at financial organizations, I am also interested in performance enhancement among traders, drawing upon research from expert performers in various fields. I took a leave from blogging starting May, 2010 due to my role at a global macro hedge fund. Blogging resumed in February, 2014.
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