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Exploiting the edge from historical market patterns

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Broad Momentum Decline: What Comes Next?

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Yesterday we saw that slow, narrow days lead to unfavorable expectations over the near term. Sure enough, today we saw a late drop today tha...
Monday, January 30, 2006

Slow, Narrow Days: What Next?

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Monday was a very narrow range, slow day in SPY. Volume was approximately 60% of the 60-day average volume and the entire range for the day ...
Sunday, January 29, 2006

Falling Markets and Stocks Making New Lows

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This poster graces my office, thanks to Despair.com . Yesterday's entry found that there was greater follow through to the upside when ...
Saturday, January 28, 2006

Rising Markets and Stocks Making New Highs

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If you've followed the Trading Psychology Weblog , you know I place great emphasis upon whether or not rising markets expand the number ...
Friday, January 27, 2006

When Big Caps Outpace Small Caps

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Yesterday's entry looked at occasions when small caps outperform large caps on the upside and found that such a scenario leads to short-...
Thursday, January 26, 2006

Do Small Cap Stocks Lead the S&P?

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A couple of readers suggested that I take a look at what happens with the S&P market as a function of strength in the small cap (Russell...
Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Range Bound Volatile Day

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How much territory does a market cover in a day? I decided to add up all the one minute ranges in ES from 11/1/05 - present (N = 57 days). I...
Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Is Google a Bellwether?

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Note: My personal site will be adding additional information re: my volatility research and will be updating over the next few days. Google...
Monday, January 23, 2006

Narrow Bounce After a Big Decline: A Rare Occurrence

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I couldn't wait to add this to the blog. Check my personal site tomorrow for details. This is a measure of institutional presence in the...
Sunday, January 22, 2006

One More Perspective on Steep Declines

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Note: I recently submitted an article to Trading Markets regarding the recent downward volatile trade. That should appear Monday AM. Also se...
Saturday, January 21, 2006

High Volume Steep Declines: A Closer Look

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I took a more detailed look at what happens after high volume large declines, and the findings are interesting. Since January, 1998 (N = 202...
Friday, January 20, 2006

High Volume Steep Decline: What Comes Next

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Friday's market moved sharply lower, with SPY down 1.82% on volume that was 136% of its 20 day average volume. What typically happens af...
Thursday, January 19, 2006

Overnight Moves and Next Day Volatility

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I recently submitted an article to Trading Markets that looks at the relationship between the size of the overnight moves in the major indic...
Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Strength After a Down Open: What Has Followed

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Wednesday's market opened down, but was up from open to close. Since January, 2004 (N = 514), we've had 52 occasions in which the ma...
Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Double Down: What Next?

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Today's market gapped lower at the open and closed lower. Now it appears likely that we'll gap lower tomorrow AM on the NASDAQ 100 I...
Monday, January 16, 2006

Bonds and Stocks: The Longer View

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As we found earlier, bond and stock prices have been positively correlated over longer time frames in the market (40 days) since 2003, but n...
Sunday, January 15, 2006

Weak Stocks and Bonds - Continuing the Investigation

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Yesterday's entry looked at strong days in the stocks since 2003 and found a tendency for near-term reversal, especially when bonds were...
Saturday, January 14, 2006

Strong Stocks: Do Bonds Make a Difference?

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Today's entry on the Trading Psychology Weblog mentioned an interesting relationship between bonds and stocks from 2003 to the present. ...
Friday, January 13, 2006

Bonds and Stocks - Interesting Relationship

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A reader suggested to me that I take a multidimensional approach to historical patterns and investigate intermarket relationships such as be...
Thursday, January 12, 2006

Ten Days After the Runup

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I just submitted an article to Trading Markets that should appear tomorrow. It takes a look at occasions since March, 2003 when we've ha...
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About Me

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Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
Author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003), Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006), The Daily Trading Coach (Wiley, 2009), Trading Psychology 2.0 (Wiley, 2015), The Art and Science of Brief Psychotherapies (APPI, 2018) and Radical Renewal (2019) with an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge. Currently writing a book on performance psychology and spirituality. As a performance coach for portfolio managers and traders at financial organizations, I am also interested in performance enhancement among traders, drawing upon research from expert performers in various fields. I took a leave from blogging starting May, 2010 due to my role at a global macro hedge fund. Blogging resumed in February, 2014.
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